The government of Moldova, headed by Maia Sandu, has traditionally sought to maintain a balance between heavyweight players on the European continent. On one hand, the authorities of this small Eastern European state have declared a clear course towards Euro-integration, cooperation with NATO, and a democratic development. On the other hand, Chisinau has always emphasized the importance of cooperation with Russia, refraining from criticizing Moscow even when European powers collectively criticized the actions of the Russian government, and avoiding direct political confrontation with the Kremlin. However, against the backdrop of events in the European continent over the past three years, the situation in Moldova is becoming increasingly tense.
Amid the fundamental changes in European security architecture, Moldovan authorities could not remain neutral; they had to choose sides. Sandu’s choice was predetermined: to continue the course towards the EU and NATO, fully support Ukraine, and join anti-Russian sanctions.
What consequences will the abandonment of neutrality lead to?
Joining the EU?
Since 2014, Moldova has been an associated member of NATO. At that time, the EU expressed a desire for “ever closer relations with Moldova, going beyond cooperation, towards gradual economic integration and deepening political cooperation.” However, Igor Dodon, who came to power in 2016, decided to turn towards the Eurasian Economic Union and tried to convince the country’s political elite of the correctness of this choice. Dodon did not find support from political forces but significantly slowed down the processes of Euro-integration. Maia Sandu, who came to power in 2020, continued the country’s course towards the EU, and by the summer of 2022, Moldova obtained candidate status, becoming the ninth country in line. Considering the experiences of Albania, North Macedonia, and Turkey (waiting for EU membership for decades), candidate status does not have significant practical value. However, obtaining the coveted status is a compelling argument for the electorate.
Maia Sandu maintained leadership among Moldovan politicians in terms of public support levels – in June 2022, 22.2 percent of the population approved of her activities (according to the results of a sociological survey by the Moldovan data collection and analysis company Date Inteligente (iData)). Everything changed with the onset of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Sandu’s government declared support for Kyiv. For the population of Moldova, such a policy resulted in a sharp spike in inflation: in 2022, it reached 28.6%. Both businesses, whose costs are rising, and ordinary citizens, who are forced to save money, suffer from inflation. The proportion of the population living below the poverty line exceeded 16% in 2022 and continued to rise in 2023. The challenging economic situation is forcing people to leave the country. Thus, following the “Voice of the People” campaign, launched to identify priority problems facing the citizens of Moldova, the main problem hindering the development of local communities was identified as the mass exodus of the population – around 120,000 in just the last 2 years. All of this negatively affected the level of support for the current president’s course, and the evidence did not take long to emerge.
The local elections in November 2023 opened a new political season in Moldova. The results of the vote were a defeat for the ruling party of the incumbent president, “Action and Solidarity,” which lost elections in 30 out of 36 cities in the republic, including in Chisinau, Balti, Orhei, and Cahul. In none of the district councils of the country did the ruling party receive a majority of votes, allowing it to independently form executive power. Overall, Sandu’s party was supported by 305,000 voters across the country, although in 2021 parliamentary elections, 775,000 people voted for it.
The upcoming presidential elections in November 2024 do not promise anything optimistic for M. Sandu and her party. Hoping to retain rapidly declining support among the electorate, the head of state announced plans to hold a referendum on enshrining the country’s integration plans into the European Union in the constitution, which once again sparked sharp criticism from the opposition and further hit the ratings of the incumbent president.
Maia Sandu’s political decisions made during her presidency have led to appalling social consequences. Refusal to cooperate with CIS countries has led to catastrophic consequences for the already weak economy of the country. Maia Sandu, as the embodiment of Moldova’s Euro-integration course at the moment, has extremely low support among the population.
The possibility of her re-election and, consequently, the continuation of the course for Moldova’s accession to the EU, is highly questionable.
What about NATO?
Although Article 11 of the Moldovan Constitution proclaims permanent neutrality and prohibits the deployment of armed forces of other states on its territory, cooperation between Chisinau and NATO has continued since 1992. Moldova joined NATO’s “Partnership for Peace” program in 1994, and in 2006, an individual partnership plan between Moldova and NATO was developed, which envisages the reform of the entire security and defense system of the republic on NATO principles and the transformation of the Moldovan National Army to the level of brigade and battalion standards of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Despite cooperation with NATO, Chisinau managed to maintain relative neutrality because agreements with Russia on military cooperation were in effect, including inspections of military units by Russian representatives. In 2015, Chisinau completely ceased cooperation with Russia in the military sphere, significantly souring relations with Moscow, albeit temporarily. By 2017, the government of Igor Dodon expressed a desire to improve relations with Russia and, accordingly, suspended the deepening of relations with NATO.
Meanwhile, Maia Sandu’s government has intensified cooperation with the military bloc. According to Sandu herself, NATO is primarily an opportunity to resolve the Transnistrian conflict and modernize its own armed forces. However, these goals do not explain why the Moldovan government decided to participate in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. NATO leadership views Moldova as another platform to provoke Moscow within the framework of the Ukrainian crisis. Furthermore, the temporarily frozen Transnistrian conflict is an excellent prospect for a possible future American-Russian conflict in Europe. NATO leadership’s corresponding attitude towards the Moldovan government demonstrates their intentions.
According to information received from our sources, for a whole year of participation in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Moldova’s Minister of Defense Anatol Nosatyi has requested meetings with US Secretary of Defense Austin Lloyd but has not even received a response to the request.
Obviously, Sandu’s chosen course could not go unnoticed by the government of the unrecognized Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, which traditionally adheres to a pro-Russian course.
The Burning Question of Transnistria
Since the collapse of the USSR, the unrecognized territory of Transnistria has traditionally been the main challenge for all Moldovan leaders. Moreover, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic applies Russian legislation on its territory. In 2006, a referendum was even held on this territory, according to the results of which over 97% of the population voted for joining the Russian Federation. However, the Kremlin is in no hurry to satisfy the request of local authorities.
Numerous attempts by Moldova’s political leadership to resolve the crisis have been in vain. Even the government of Igor Dodon, despite its obvious pro-Russian position and promises of broad autonomy, failed to resolve the crisis.
Sandu’s Euro-integration course, cooperation between Chisinau and NATO, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have created an extremely dangerous situation in Transnistria. In the spring of 2022, the PMR already declared a “red” level of terrorist threat due to explosions in military units, sabotage of radio towers, and some buildings.
The transition of the frozen conflict in Transnistria to a “hot” phase under current circumstances is only a matter of time.
What’s Next?
Maia Sandu’s political decisions during her presidency have created an extremely unstable situation in the region. The abandonment of neutrality, cessation of economic cooperation with the CIS, involvement of the country in the Ukrainian crisis have led to huge economic and social problems within the country.
Even without the explosive region of Transnistria, with each passing day, the region is closer to armed conflict.
Chisinau is at a crossroads: against the backdrop of growing tension between Russia and NATO, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Moldova to maintain balance.
The recent successes of Russia in the war in Ukraine are not at all in favor of Moldova. Representatives of right-wing forces in neighboring countries have already declared claims to Ukrainian territories in case of Moscow’s victory. For instance, the leader of the Hungarian party “Our Homeland,” Laszlo Toroczkai, stated claims of the Hungarian government to Zakarpattia in case of Ukraine’s defeat.
And the co-chair of the extreme right-wing Romanian political party “Alliance for Romania’s Unity,” Claudiu Tarziu, stated the need to annex former lands to the country — parts of the territories of Ukraine and Moldova: Bessarabia, Bukovina, Herța, and Zakarpattia.
It is quite likely that in the event of defeat in the Ukrainian crisis, NATO leadership will want to use the backup option and turn its attention to Transnistria.
So, either European politicians urgently need to pay attention to Moldova, or European states will soon have to accept Moldovan refugees.
Peace.
Love.